World Economic Outlook, October 2021 - International ...

The global economy is projected to grow 5.9 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022, 0.1 percentage point lower for 2021 than in the July ... 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LoginorRegister Informationofinterest Videos AbouttheIMF Conferences Pressbriefings Speeches SpecialFeatures Africa Americas Asia Europe MiddleEastandCentralAsia EconomicOutlook Annualandspringmeetings CapacityDevelopment MostRecent MostPopular Data IMFFinances AdditionalDataSources WorldEconomicOutlookDatabases Database IMFeLibrary-Data InternationalFinancialStatistics G20DataGapsInitiative CurrencyCompositionofOfficialForeignExchangeReserves FinancialAccessSurvey Publications IMFeLibrary IMFBookstore IMFAnnualReport Finance&Development WorldEconomicOutlook GlobalFinancialStabilityReport FiscalMonitor ExternalSectorReport RegionalEconomicReports PolicyPapers StaffDiscussionNotes DepartmentalPapers AllStaffNotesSeries GlobalFinancialStabilityNotes SpilloverNotes How-ToNotes Advancedsearch COVID-19 PandemicPlan FinancialAssistance SpecialSeries COVID-19GlobalTargetsandProgressTracker IMF-WHOCOVID-19VaccineSupplyTracker IMF-WHOSubnationalCOVID-19VaccinationDashboard IMF-WHOCOVID-19VaccineSupplyForecastDashboard WorldEconomicOutlook October2021 RecoveryDuringaPandemic HealthConcerns,SupplyDisruptions,andPricePressures Overview ProjectionsTable ChaptersintheReport Statisticalappendix GDPGrowth DataTools Videos English العربية español français 日本語 русский 中文 português Globalrecoverycontinues,butthemomentumhasweakenedanduncertaintyhasincreased Theglobaleconomicrecoveryiscontinuing,evenasthepandemicresurges.ThefaultlinesopenedupbyCOVID-19arelookingmorepersistent—near-termdivergencesareexpectedtoleavelastingimprintsonmedium-termperformance.Vaccineaccessandearlypolicysupportaretheprincipaldriversofthegaps.    Theglobaleconomyisprojectedtogrow5.9percentin2021and4.9percentin2022,0.1percentagepointlowerfor2021thanintheJulyforecast.Thedownwardrevisionfor2021reflectsadowngradeforadvancedeconomies—inpartduetosupplydisruptions—andforlow-incomedevelopingcountries,largelyduetoworseningpandemicdynamics.Thisispartiallyoffsetbystrongernear-termprospectsamongsomecommodity-exportingemergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies.RapidspreadofDeltaandthethreatofnewvariantshaveincreaseduncertaintyabouthowquicklythepandemiccanbeovercome.Policychoiceshavebecomemoredifficult,withlimitedroomtomaneuver.  FullReport ExecutiveSummary Foreword BlogbyGitaGopinath October2021Database PressBriefing ProjectionsTable DownloadData ChaptersintheReport GlobalProspectsandPolicies Theglobaleconomicrecoverycontinuesamidaresurgingpandemicthatposesuniquepolicychallenges.GapsinexpectedrecoveriesacrosseconomygroupshavewidenedsincetheJulyforecast,forinstancebetweenadvancedeconomiesandlow-incomedevelopingcountries.Meanwhile,inflationhasincreasedmarkedlyintheUnitedStatesandsomeemergingmarketeconomies.Asrestrictionsarerelaxed,demandhasaccelerated,butsupplyhasbeenslowertorespond.Althoughpricepressuresareexpectedtosubsideinmostcountriesin2022,inflationprospectsarehighlyuncertain.Theseincreasesininflationareoccurringevenasemploymentisbelowpre-pandemiclevelsinmanyeconomies,forcingdifficultchoicesonpolicymakers.Strongpolicyeffortatthemultilaterallevelisneededonvaccinedeployment,climatechange,andinternationalliquiditytostrengthenglobaleconomicprospects.Nationalpoliciestocomplementthemultilateraleffortwillrequiremuchmoretailoringtocountry-specificconditionsandbettertargeting,aspolicyspaceconstraintsbecomemorebindingthelongerthepandemiclasts. ReadtheChapter chapter1data october2021database BlogbyGitaGopinath onlineannex pressconference PODCAST InflationScares Despiterecentincreasesinheadlineinflationinbothadvancedandemergingmarketeconomies,long-terminflationexpectationsremainanchored.Lookingahead,headlineinflationisprojectedtopeakinthefinalmonthsof2021butisexpectedtoreturntopre-pandemiclevelsbymid-2022formosteconomies.Butgiventherecovery’sunchartednature,considerableuncertaintyremains,andinflationcouldexceedforecastsforavarietyofreasons.Clearcommunication,combinedwithappropriatemonetaryandfiscalpolicies,canhelpprevent“inflationscares”fromunhinginginflationexpectations. ReadtheChapter chapter2data blogbyimfstaff onlineannex Podcast ResearchandInnovation:FightingthePandemicandBoostingLong-TermGrowth Howcanpolicymakersboostlong-termgrowthinthepost–COVID-19globaleconomy?Thischapterlooksattheroleofbasicresearch—undirected,theoretical,orexperimentalwork.Usingrichnewdatathatdrawonconnectionsfromindividualinnovationsandscientificarticles,thischaptershowsthatbasicresearchisanessentialinputintoinnovation,withwide-ranginginternationalspilloversandlong-lastingeconomicimpacts. Readthechapter chapter3data watchthevideo blogbyimfstaff onlineannex StatisticalAppendix StatisticalAppendix: Dataassumptions,conventions,andclassifications StatisticalAppendixA: KeyGlobalEconomicIndicators StatisticalAppendixB: SupplementalGlobalEconomicIndicators DataMapper DataTools October2021Database FAQontheOctoberRelease SendUsyourQuestions AccesstheDatamapper SubscribetoRSS Videos Publications WorldEconomicOutlook LatestIssue GlobalFinancialStabilityReport LatestIssue FiscalMonitor LatestIssue Finance&DevelopmentMagazine LatestIssue AnnualReport LatestIssue RegionalEconomicOutlook LatestIssue