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OECD Economic Outlook

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The OECD Economic Outlook provides analysis and GDP growth forecasts for all G20 countries and the world economy as a whole. AtoZ×MenuFrançaisEspañol×SearchOECDHomeAboutCountriesAfghanistanAlbaniaAlgeriaAndorraAngolaAnguillaAntiguaandBarbudaArgentinaArmeniaArubaAustraliaAustriaAzerbaijanBahamasBahrainBangladeshBarbadosBelarusBelgiumBelizeBeninBermudaBhutanBosniaandHerzegovinaBotswanaBoliviaBrazilBritishVirginIslandsBruneiDarussalamBulgariaBurkinaFasoBurundiCaboVerdeCambodiaCameroonCanadaCaymanIslandsCentralAfricanRepublicChadChileChina(People’sRepublicof)ColombiaComorosCookIslandsCostaRicaCôted'IvoireCongoCroatiaCubaCyprusCzechRepublicDemocraticPeople'sRepublicofKoreaDemocraticRepublicoftheCongoDenmarkDjiboutiDominicaDominicanRepublicEcuadorEgyptElSalvadorEquatorialGuineaEritreaEstoniaEswatiniEthiopiaEuropeanUnionFaroeIslandsFijiFinlandFranceFrenchGuianaGabonGambiaGeorgiaGermanyGhanaGibraltarGreeceGreenlandGrenadaGuernseyGuatemalaGuineaGuinea-BissauGuyanaHaitiHondurasHongKong(China)HungaryIcelandIndiaIndonesiaIraqIrelandIranIsleofManIsraelItalyJamaicaJapanJerseyJordanKazakhstanKenyaKiribatiKoreaKuwaitKyrgyzstanLaoPeople'sDemocraticRepublicLatviaLebanonLesothoLiberiaLibyaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMacau(China)MadagascarMalawiMalaysiaMaldivesMaliMaltaMarshallIslandsMauritaniaMauritiusMayotteMexicoMicronesiaMonacoMongoliaMontenegroMontserratMoroccoMozambiqueMoldovaMyanmarNamibiaNauruNepalNetherlandsNewZealandNicaraguaNigerNigeriaNiueNorwayOmanPakistanPalauPalestinianAuthorityPanamaPapuaNewGuineaParaguayPeruPhilippinesPolandPortugalPuertoRicoQatarRepublicofNorthMacedoniaRomaniaRussiaRwandaSaintHelenaSaintKittsandNevisSaintLuciaSaintVincentandtheGrenadinesSamoaSanMarinoSaoTomeandPrincipeSaudiArabiaSenegalSerbiaSerbiaandMontenegro(pre-June2006)SeychellesSierraLeoneSingaporeSlovakRepublicSloveniaSolomonIslandsSomaliaSouthAfricaSouthSudanSpainSriLankaSudanSurinameSwedenSwitzerlandSyrianArabRepublicChineseTaipeiTajikistanTanzaniaThailandTimor-LesteTogoTokelauTongaTrinidadandTobagoTunisiaTurkeyTurkmenistanTurksandCaicosIslandsTuvaluUgandaUkraineUnitedArabEmiratesUnitedKingdomUnitedStatesUnitedStatesVirginIslandsUruguayUzbekistanVanuatuVenezuelaVietNamWallisandFutunaWesternSaharaYemenZambiaZimbabweTopicsAgricultureandfisheriesChemicalsafetyandbiosafetyCompetitionCorporategovernanceCorruptionandintegrityDevelopmentDigitalEconomyEducationEmploymentEnvironmentFinanceGreengrowthandsustainabledevelopmentHealthIndustryandentrepreneurshipInnovationInsuranceandpensionsInvestmentMigrationPublicgovernanceRegional,ruralandurbandevelopmentRegulatoryreformScienceandtechnologySkillsSocialandwelfareissuesTaxTradeCoronavirus(COVID-19)OECDHomeAboutCountriesA-CAfghanistanAlbaniaAlgeriaAndorraAngolaAnguillaAntiguaandBarbudaArgentinaArmeniaArubaAustraliaAustriaAzerbaijanBahamasBahrainBangladeshBarbadosBelarusBelgiumBelizeBeninBermudaBhutanBosniaandHerzegovinaBotswanaBoliviaBrazilBritishVirginIslandsBruneiDarussalamBulgariaBurkinaFasoBurundiCaboVerdeCambodiaCameroonCanadaCaymanIslandsCentralAfricanRepublicChadChileChina(People’sRepublicof)ColombiaComorosCookIslandsCostaRicaCôted'IvoireCongoCroatiaCubaCyprusCzechRepublicD-IDemocraticPeople'sRepublicofKoreaDemocraticRepublicoftheCongoDenmarkDjiboutiDominicaDominicanRepublicEcuadorEgyptElSalvadorEquatorialGuineaEritreaEstoniaEswatiniEthiopiaEuropeanUnionFaroeIslandsFijiFinlandFranceFrenchGuianaGabonGambiaGeorgiaGermanyGhanaGibraltarGreeceGreenlandGrenadaGuernseyGuatemalaGuineaGuinea-BissauGuyanaHaitiHondurasHongKong(China)HungaryIcelandIndiaIndonesiaIraqIrelandIranIsleofManIsraelItalyJ-MJamaicaJapanJerseyJordanKazakhstanKenyaKiribatiKoreaKuwaitKyrgyzstanLaoPeople'sDemocraticRepublicLatviaLebanonLesothoLiberiaLibyaLiechtensteinLithuaniaLuxembourgMacau(China)MadagascarMalawiMalaysiaMaldivesMaliMaltaMarshallIslandsMauritaniaMauritiusMayotteMexicoMicronesiaMonacoMongoliaMontenegroMontserratMoroccoMozambiqueMoldovaMyanmarN-RNamibiaNauruNepalNetherlandsNewZealandNicaraguaNigerNigeriaNiueNorwayOmanPakistanPalauPalestinianAuthorityPanamaPapuaNewGuineaParaguayPeruPhilippinesPolandPortugalPuertoRicoQatarRepublicofNorthMacedoniaRomaniaRussiaRwandaS-TSaintHelenaSaintKittsandNevisSaintLuciaSaintVincentandtheGrenadinesSamoaSanMarinoSaoTomeandPrincipeSaudiArabiaSenegalSerbiaSerbiaandMontenegro(pre-June2006)SeychellesSierraLeoneSingaporeSlovakRepublicSloveniaSolomonIslandsSomaliaSouthAfricaSouthSudanSpainSriLankaSudanSurinameSwedenSwitzerlandSyrianArabRepublicChineseTaipeiTajikistanTanzaniaThailandTimor-LesteTogoTokelauTongaTrinidadandTobagoTunisiaTurkeyTurkmenistanTurksandCaicosIslandsTuvaluU-ZUgandaUkraineUnitedArabEmiratesUnitedKingdomUnitedStatesUnitedStatesVirginIslandsUruguayUzbekistanVanuatuVenezuelaVietNamWallisandFutunaWesternSaharaYemenZambiaZimbabweTopicsAgricultureandfisheriesChemicalsafetyandbiosafetyCompetitionCorporategovernanceCorruptionandintegrityDevelopmentDigitalEconomyEducationEmploymentEnvironmentFinanceGreengrowthandsustainabledevelopmentHealthIndustryandentrepreneurshipInnovationInsuranceandpensionsInvestmentMigrationPublicgovernanceRegional,ruralandurbandevelopmentRegulatoryreformScienceandtechnologySkillsSocialandwelfareissuesTaxTradeCoronavirus(COVID-19)FrançaisEspañolABalancingActOECDEconomicOutlook,December2021GlobalOutlookInflationPolicyactionsVideokeyresourcesReadthereportFRESGlobalOutlookInflationPolicyactionsVideokeyresourcesReadthereportFRESPressReleasePressconferencePresentationChiefeconomisteditorialStatisticalannexPreviouseditionsOECDCOVID-19HubFocusonaninclusiverecoveryFocusontheGlobalEconomyTheglobalrecoveryisstrongbutimbalancedOutputinmostOECDcountrieshasnowsurpasseditslate-2019levelandisconvergingonitspre-pandemicpathbutlower-incomeeconomies,particularlythosewherevaccinationratesarelow,areatriskofbeingleftbehind.TheunevennessoftherecoveryiswidespreadTherecoveryisalsounevenwithinadvancedeconomies.EmploymentisstillrelativelyweakintheUnitedStates,butisalreadyhigherthanitspre-pandemiclevelintheEuroArea.Atthesametime,UnitedStatesGDPhasrecoveredfasterthanEurope’s.Differentprotectionmodelsmeandifferentchallengeslookingahead.Thelabourmarketisimbalanced.Manypeoplearestrugglingtofindjobsyetbusinessesinanumberofsectorshavedifficultyrecruitingworkers.Theskillsdemandedinthewakeofthecrisisarenotnecessarilythesameasbefore.AshortageofworkersinsomesectorsalsoreflectsadeclineinlabourforceparticipationratesinmostOECDcountries.Participationisexpectedtonormaliseastheeffectsofthepandemicwaneincreasinglaboursupplyhelpingtokeepwagegrowthmoderate.Imbalancesalsoremainacrossindustries,withsectorsdependentoninterpersonalcontactsuchastravel,tourismandleisurecontinuingtosuffer,whiledemandforconsumergoodshasbeenstrong,especiallyintheUnitedStates.Stronggoodsdemandfacessupplybottlenecks Thereboundislosingsomemomentumasthesurgeindemandforgoodshasmetbottlenecksinproductionchains.Inflationpressureshaveemergedinalleconomies,as:disruptionsinenergy,foodandcommoditymarketshavepusheduppriceshighenergypricesandfuelshortagesarelimitingmanufacturingofkeymaterialsandintermediategoodsbottlenecksinproductionchainsarespreadingtomoregeneralisedshortagesofgoods.Therenewedinflationarypressuresriskslastinglongerthanwasexpectedafewmonthsago.Risingfoodandenergypricesarehittinglow-incomehouseholdsinparticular.DownloaddataShortageshittingcarindustry Thecarindustryisoneofthemajormanufacturingsectorsbeinghitbyshortagesofintermediategoodssuchassemiconductors,andbybottlenecksinshippingandmetals.Carproductionandsaleshavefallengloballywhilepricesforbothnewandusedvehicleshaveriseninanumberofcountries.Whyarecarpricesrising?DownloadinfographicWhatcangovernmentsdo?VaccinationremainsthetoppolicypriorityImprovepublichealthmanagementandinternationalcoordinationtoensurerapidandeffectivevaccinationsaroundtheworld.Thiswillsavelivesandreducesupplybottlenecksbyallowingfactories,portsandcommercetore-openfully.>READMORERaisehighqualityinvestmentforamoresustainablerecoveryNowisthetimetodetailplansforpublicfinances,andforembracingtheclimatetransitionanddigitalisation.Rebalancecompositionofpublicspendingandincreasepublicinvestmentandpolicycertainty,tostrengthentherecovery,encourageprivateinvestment,easethesupplyofgoodsandbuildforthefuture.>READMOREBoostskillstoensurearecoveryforallEnhancedreformsareneededtoimprovejobopportunities,alleviateskillshortagesandrestorebusinessdynamism>READMORETwominuteviewKeyresourcesiLibrarydoi:66c5ac2c-enOECDEconomicOutlookVolume2021,Issue2TheglobalrecoveryfromtheCOVID-19pandemicisunevenandbecomingimbalanced.TheOECDEconomicOutlook,Volume2021Issue2,highlightsthecontinuedbenefitsofvaccinationsandstrongpolicysupportfortheglobaleconomy,butalsopointstotherisksandpolicychallengesarisingfromsupplyconstraintsandrisinginflationpressures.Readthereport> Pressrelease> Pressconference> Presentation> CHIEFECONOMISTEDITORIAL> Statisticalannex> PreviouseditionsPhotocredits©:Shutterstock:Iconography-Videography;Shutterstock.Toggle

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